There's this blogger who feels that the Ducks don't stand a chance in the Big House at Michigan on September 8th. He has the Wolverines possessing an 80% chance of victory. And off course, he has Michigan going undefeated all season. I don't know what blue and maize tinted-glasses he's wearing, but at the very least, I just don't see Michigan trouncing Oregon (3-4 point victory for the winner), and I think the Wolverines will LOSE at Wisconsin. No way they escape Camp Randall unscathed.
I guess everyone's got an opinion, but I feel only USC and LSU have the best chance to go undefeated in 2007.
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3 comments:
2 points:
1) Learn to read. I did not predict Michigan to go 12-0 on the season.
My prediction for Michigan is 10-2 on the regular season which is what you mathematically get by adding up the % chance of losing each game. For example, if you are 80% chance to win each of 5 games, the most likely record is 4-1 over those 5 games. For the record, my preseason prediction has been within 1 game of Michigan's final record 4 of the last 5 seasons. That's not too shabby.
2) Please don't use phrases implying I feel that Ducks don't stand a chance at winning in Ann Arbor. I feel there is a 20% chance that they do win and an even better chance that they keep it close. I give Oregon a better shot than Penn State or Notre Dame this year and think it is Michigan's 2nd toughest home game of the season (behind only Ohio State).
If you'd like to go drum up some "nobody respects us" type posts somewhere, go for it. But don't look at me. I'm extremely well aware of what kind of team Oregon has and what kind of team Michigan has. I know that Michigan almost never loses at home so there is little reason to expect them to lose to Oregon. Could Oregon win? Of course. Is it to be expected? No way. I suspect it'll probably be a close game heading into the 4th quarter with Michigan pulling away late to win by 10. Considering Michigan is a top 5 team, that's not exactly a knock against an Oregon team that went 1-3 on the road in conference play last year.
I really don't care what you think about what I post ON MY OWN BLOG!
How do you equate a team being favored to win every game as not being undefeated??
When you say that Michigan has an 80% chance of victory, then you're really not giving Oregon much chance, if at all to win. How can I make that any clearer?
I think that's pretty arrogant, don't you? You look WAAAY TOO MUCH at last year's stuff. Last year is just that... last year.
Michigan is a top five team this year. But Oregon's not going to walk out of the Big House with their heads hanging low, because they're going know that they've pushed the Wolverines to the limit. Bank on it!
Talk about it more on YOUR blog, if you wish. I don't need to justify my beliefs to anyone. My thoughts are mine, yours are yours, end of story.
I'm just pointing out that you are blatantly mischaracterizing what I've said.
If I said Team A had a 55% chance at winning each game on their 12 game schedule, would you be arguing that they should go undefeated through 12 games? That'd be insane. They'd be far more likely to go 6-6 or 7-5.
It's simple statistics. Michigan will be favored in every game they play in the regular season. That does not, however, mean they are favored to go 12-0. To be expected to go 12-0, you'd need to have a roughly 96% chance at winning each individual game.
Lastly, I'm still amazed that you think me thinking Oregon will win 20% of theoretical games played between the 2 teams means they don't stand a chance. Your math is simply different than what I was taught. I think Oregon will have a chance maybe 50% of the time and will actually win it maybe 20% of the time. By my logic, that's not bad.
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