Ah, college football....
It's that time of year where everyone's undefeated, and everyone's going to win the national championship. Fall practices around the Pacific-10 Conference (and the country) are well underway. Soon, we will all look forward to Saturdays, with ESPN's College Gameday first thing in the morning, then tailgating at the stadium, or at home in front of the plasma widescreen.
After reading the news from camps around the Pac-10, my opinion of how each team will finish this year hasn't changed much, and is similar to the many preseason magazines off of the bookstore racks. Here's my take on how the Pac-10 will do this year in 2007 (in order of finish):
1. USC (11-2, 7-2 conf. in 2006) – In receiving all 39 first-place votes in the Pac-10 media poll, let’s just start off by saying the Trojans are loaded with talent, across the board. They return seven starters on offense, and 10 on defense. USC will have some holes to fill at wide receiver and running back, but the new players filling those spots are plenty talented, and should be fine. The Trojan defense, again, will be one of the best in the nation. How could the Trojans lose? Well, it would be because of their brutal schedule: at Nebraska, at Notre Dame, at Oregon, at California, and hosting UCLA. Any one of those games could trip USC up. And, I just found out the backup QB Mark Sanchez is hurt. Will starting QB John David Booty be able to handle the entire load for a while? I believe so. They could lose one game at worst, but will most likely go undefeated. Look for the Trojans to vie for a national title game bid. Prediction: 12-0, 9-0 Pac-10
2. California (10-3, 7-2 conf.) – The Golden Bears luckily shared the Pac-10 title in 2006 with USC, despite losing to the Trojans earlier in the season. QB Nate Longshore and WR DeSean Jackson (a Heisman Trophy candidate) are probably the best offensive tandem in the conference. Cal returns seven on offense, but only five on defense. The Bears secondary will be green, and they may have to outscore some teams this year, but they can put up some points on the scoreboard. They have to play a couple of tough midseason games on the road against Oregon and UCLA, and they’ll try to vindicate last year’s defeat to USC, but at least the game’s in Berkeley. Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 Pac-10
3. UCLA (7-6, 5-4 conf.) – The Bruins will be breaking in their new offensive coordinator, Jay Norvell, but that shouldn’t slow down this potent offense. They have enough tools to win the Pac-10 title. UCLA has 20 starters coming back (10 offense, 10 defense). There most likely is a battle going on for the starting QB job, between two talented players in Ben Olsen and Patrick Cowan, as they seek their share of the snaps. The Bruins probably have the best wide receiving corps in the conference, and have a good running back in Chris Markey. UCLA also boasts a great defensive line, with fast defensive ends and linebackers. They get Notre Dame, California, and Oregon at home, but have to go to the Coliseum to face USC. The Bruins don’t make it past Cal and USC though. Prediction: 10-2, 7-2 Pac-10
4. Oregon (7-6, 4-5 conf.) – The second-half collapse of the Ducks was hopefully a fluke, as they try to overcome their immense number of injuries and lack of confidence late in the season, that they experienced in 2006. Oregon, like UCLA, has a new offensive coordinator (and spread offense guru) in Chip Kelly. With the seven returning starters on offense, and the seven on defense, the Ducks, behind QB Dennis Dixon, need to maintain their good offensive production (#9 in NCAA total offense in 2006), and utilize the running game more, with bruiser RB’s Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson. Special teams will hopefully improve, but remains in question, along with their depth on the defensive line. The Ducks were abysmal at stopping the run last year (ninth in the Pac-10). Oregon arguably has the best secondary in the conference, however, with Patrick Chung, Jairus Byrd, and Walter Thurmond III, each as potential All Pac-10 candidates in 2007. The Ducks have a favorable schedule, but still will have trouble at Michigan, at home versus USC, and at UCLA. Prediction: 9-3, 7-2 Pac-10
5. Arizona State (7-6, 4-5 conf.) – The lucky thing for the Sun Devils is that it’s now 2007, and they have one heck of a new head coach in Dennis Erickson. After last year’s fall camp debacle with Nebraska QB Sam Keller quitting the team, starting QB Rudy Carpenter was miserable in 2006, compared to when he shared snaps with Keller his freshman year. ASU has 10 offensive starters returning, but only six on defense. The Sun Devils feature a decent running game with RB Ryan Torain, and the entire offensive line is back, so it should give Torain room to roam. Here’s the hard part… figuring out their win and losses. Besides hosting Arizona, California and USC, the Sun Devils travel to Washington State, Oregon, and UCLA. Not a good way for Erickson to start his tenure in Tempe. Prediction: 7-5, 4-5 Pac-10
Now, a quick look at the rest of the Pac-10:
6. Washington State (6-6, 4-5 conf.) – QB Alex Brink is one of the best in the Pac-10, and could become number one on the Cougar's career passing list by year’s end. The problem is, WSU needs to work on their running game and defense. Prediction: 6-6, 4-5 Pac-10
7. Arizona (6-6, 4-5 conf.) – The Wildcats have most of their weapons coming back, but QB Willie Tuitama needs to stay healthy (and concussion-free) for Arizona to move up this list. They do have one of the better defenses in the Pac-10, however. Prediction: 6-6, 3-6 Pac-10
8. Oregon State (10-4, 6-3 conf.) – The Beavers have a great defense and excellent running game. That might be enough to win games. Or, it might not be enough. There’s a QB battle between Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao. And what’s worse is that star WR Sammie Stroughter has been MIA from fall camp so far (no word if he’s returning), and punter Kyle Loomis has quit the team. Uh oh. Prediction: 6-6, 3-6 Pac-10
9. Washington (5-7, 3-6 conf.) – A few bright spots this year for the Huskies include a good offensive line and decent receivers. But that will only take you so far, if anointed blue-chip freshman QB Jake Locker comes out green and gets hammered by opposing defenses. If he doesn’t complete passes, and if RB Louis Rankin gets hurt again, look for head coach Tyrone Willingham to receive his walking papers. Prediction: 2-10, 2-7 Pac-10
10. Stanford (1-11, 1-8 conf.) – New head coach Jim Harbaugh said at the Pac-10 Media Day, “I will enjoy the struggle” at turning around the Cardinal. He won’t be “enjoying” anything, if his team gives up another 50 sacks as Stanford did in 2006. The Cardinal were near the bottom of the NCAA in total offense and defense last year… I don’t expect that to change this year. You’re in it for the long haul, Jimmy. Good luck getting some of Michigan's recruits. Prediction: 0-12, 0-9 Pac-10
Well, there you have it. That's my take on the Pac-10 conference. Please feel free to let me know what you think. Saturdays are coming!
I only wish we didn't have to wait around all day to see the Ducks take on the Huskies. But, we'll be tailgating early on Saturday, so there is an upside to the long day.
